London Risk Conference Program Announced Institute of Directors, London, 14-15 April 2010
The 2010 Palisade Risk Conference is being held in London on 14-15 April and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis. This year's keynote presentation, "Number Cruncher or Decision Professional?", will be delivered by Andrea Dickens and Dr. Sven Roden from the Unilever Finance Academy, and the expanded schedule also includes case studies from CapGemini, Halcrow, Pricewaterhouse Coopers and Statoil. Topics include:
- Plant project risk analysis
- Cost risk analysis
- Engineering optimization
- Supply chain management
- Utilities distribution
- Six Sigma and quality
- Modeling the Ryder Cup and much more
Palisade president Sam McLafferty will be unveiling the new, multi-language versions of the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK 5.5.1, and our trainers and developers will be on hand to answer questions and provide software training. The event also provides an excellent opportunity to network with other professionals and find out how they¡¯re using Palisade solutions to make better decisions.
» View the full schedule » Register today
Healthcare Forum Schedule Available Join us for this one-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the healthcare sector. Case studies to be presented include topics such as:
- Biotech portfolio analysis
- Schedule risk assessment
- Clinical trial investments
- Health program opportunity analysis
- And more
Software training will also be included, covering new approaches to the problems you face every day. You will see how new versions of @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, TopRank, NeuralTools, StatTools, and other Palisade software tools work together to give you the most complete picture possible in your situation. Top-level consultants, industry practitioners, and Palisade experts will present to an audience of professionals from across the spectrum of business and research.
» View the full schedule » Register today
Upcoming Webcast "Use of @RISK for Probabilistic Decision Analysis of a Manufacturing Forecast in an Environment of High Uncertainty" Presented by Dr. Jose A. Briones SpyroTek Performance Solutions March 11, 2010, 11:00am ET Profitability projections in a manufacturing environment are directly tied to how the sales forecast fits with the capability of the operation. When a company has a large portfolio of products with very different operational production rates, the manufacturing capacity of the plant will be significantly impacted by the product mix to be produced. This in turn will have a radical effect on the output of the plant and the allocation of the fixed cost of production. In this case we present an example where a company is trying to decide how best to balance the sales of certain families of products to maximize revenue, maintain a diverse product line, and properly price each individual product based on the impact to the manufacturing schedule and fixed cost allocation. » Register now (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
Palisade Blog Headlines New business planning – measuring feasibility Tuesday, February 23, 2010 The latest Business in Britain survey from Lloyds TSB Commercial shows that the UK's commercial enterprises are regaining confidence. Companies planning major new business drives for 2010 would do well to follow the example of Thales UK, which uses @RISK to enable it to assess commercial feasibility of potential new business wins. » Read more
Opportunity Costs of Risk Analysis Friday, February 12, 2010 Merck's Art Misyan, currently Director, Financial Evaluation and Analysis at the company and a longtime practitioner of risk analysis and decision evaluation, has offered some cogent comment in response to my blog about the calculating the opportunity costs of risk analysis in making decisions under uncertainty... » Read more
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Tioga Energy uses @RISK to Predict Financial Savings from Solar Energy
Based in Silicon Valley, California, Tioga Energy is a leading supplier of renewable energy services to commercial, government, and non-profit institutions. The state of California alone consumes more electricity than all but twelve of the largest countries in the world. Tioga maintains and operates solar systems on behalf of its customers. In order to illustrate the benefits of solar, Tioga needs to estimate future electricity prices and make comparisons by showing the savings from a new solar system. To forecast possible price increases, Tioga Energy inputs historical electricity rate data into a model developed using Palisade's risk analysis software, @RISK.
» Read the full case study
Use of RiskTheo to Represent Distributions as Discrete Ones
You can use the RiskTheo function in @RISK to determine the parameters of a discrete distribution based on a continuous one. In this example, the RiskTheo functions of @RISK work out the P10, P50, and P90 percentiles of a continuous distribution (in this case the LogNormal), and the Mean and Standard Deviation of a RiskDiscrete distribution which has these X-values and some assumed probabilities (or weights). It then uses Excel's Solver to work out the probabilities required so that the discrete distribution based on these percentiles and probabilities would have the same mean and standard deviation as the continuous distribution.
Download the example: CtsToDiscrete.xls
Accounts Receivable Collection Agencies Employ Virtual Spanish-Speaking Agents Technique: Decision trees » see PrecisionTree Source: PR Web, January 28, 2010
To help eliminate language difficulties in communicating about payment of debt, a new automated contact system based on decision trees uses an animated character, called an Avatar, to converse with customers in their own language.
Neurobiology Neural Modeling Helps Expose Epilepsy Triggers Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation » see @RISK Technique: Neural Networks » see NeuralTools Source: PressReleasePoint, February 13, 2010
Research from the U.S. Department of Energy¡¯s Argonne National Laboratories demonstrates how neural networks can be used to simulate activity in areas of the human brain where epileptic seizures arise.
Software Innovation Handwriting Recognition Software Approaches Technique: Neural Networks » see NeuralTools Source: TechRadar UK, February 10, 2010
A tech editor passes along Microsoft¡¯s announcement of progress using neural networks technology in the development of new handwriting recognition software.
Space Science A Census of Alien Life Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation » see @RISK Source: Scientific American, February 10, 2010
A report on one scientist¡¯s use of Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques to estimate the extent of extraterrestrial life.
Web Metrics Think Ahead While Cutting Back Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation » see @RISK Source: MediaPost Publications, February 10, 2010
Columnist advises IT managers to look to such techniques as Monte Carlo simulation for sorting out cost-cutting strategies. |